Somalia : Is political Instability Healthy for Kenya ?

Periodic journals have came up with articles and publications in regards to the war-torn Somalia conflict stating that the civil war have caused regional instability and acts as a major hindrance for development within the East African region. From insecurity within the Indian Ocean waters by Somali pirates to the safe haven for Al-Qaida militants within the region. However, not any have argued outside the “black box” and try to figure out whether stability within the region may not be a merit for political, economic and social-cultural development in Kenya. Is their possibility that Kenya may not be as well developed as today regionally more so if all the regional states had established a lasting and stable political system? Thus, is the political instability in Somalia "healthy" for Kenya?

The Somali Civil War is an ongoing civil war taking place in Somalia. The conflict, which began in 1991, has caused destabilization throughout the country and instability within the East Africa region, with the current phase of the conflict seeing the Somalia government losing substantial control of the state to rebel forces. The unrest initially consisted of a series of clashes between various tribalism factions, but with time it took a militant Islamist tone. Somalia's government declared state of emergency in June 2009, requesting immediate international support, and the military intervention of neighboring East African states.However, since the political instability within the region have been an impediment to regional security and stability  more so to front line states like Kenya, Ethiopia and both South and Northern Sudan. In this regard, is the civil war in Somalia "healthy" or a benefactor for economic takeoff in Kenya?

PM Raila Odinga,President Sharif Ahmed,President Mwai Kibaki,
George Saitoti (acting foreign affairs minister-Kenya)
 (Somalia Transitional Federal Government meeting in Kenya)

Kenya as a regional hegemony within the region. It enjoys military, economic and diplomatic instruments that can fore shore states when need be and actually control the trade policies within the region. The point that most regional governments’ looks towards Kenya in times of conflict resolution, it may be considered as the periphery of the periphery within the East Africa region. This was seen during the previous regimes to engage in the spirit of good neighborliness and non-alignment in conflict resolution. In 2004, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Somalia was founded in Nairobi, Kenya when matters were still too chaotic inside Somalia. Kenya has been seen as a mediator during the conflict periods and with full view as a threat to Kenya security from been invaded by the insurgence. We still go ahead and accommodate Somalia Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and gives it authority to the run their government through Kenya boundaries. In these state, we find that Kenyan government will have an upper lip within the region in terms of international community support and economic trade policies within the region.

The geographical factor that Kenya enjoys includes the fact that Kenya and Somalia are marked as littoral zone or states. These states enjoy the benefit of being within the regional waters and have a bargaining power toward the regional waters. Since most East African states are landlocked countries they depend on the Indian Ocean as the only regional water in terms of shipping products. Somalia is at civil-war, Kenya becomes the last option from the region because of the regional geographical territory which is also considered a good area for the establishment of most United Nation regional headquarters for easy distribution of aid relief and is located at the center of the flying zone within the region for easy access by international airlines. This has influenced most international communities to consider Kenya as a soft spot for setting up their regional offices. These benefits are enormous to the point that when Kenya experience political instability (2007-2008) most of the international bodies came in to be able to establish political stability in Kenya leading to a coalition government. This may not be the case when there was a stable political system within the region more so in Somalia. If this were not the case we may be ignored like any other regional governments to establish an internal solution which may not be a lasting solution to Kenya government without the international support.

Moreover, just recently accusations have been raised that Kenya is giving the United states territory within the Northern Frontier Districts (NFD) to attack terrorist regions within Somalia.This influence the nature of US –Kenya foreign policy relations due to the fact that Kenya military is also benefiting from the military training and high tech military weapons in order to improve security within the Northern borders. Most foreign policy scholars have argued that government to government relations are normally influence by state national interest. The US foreign policy is normally influenced by the international security and they go as far as giving military aid in order to get off regimes that are against international security – case study the current NATO bombing in Libya and the support of the international community and the US towards the Libyan rebels to oust the Gadhaffi authoritarian regime. This gives Kenya access to military weapons that she can foreshore regional regimes in terms of diplomatic, economic and political negotiations within the periphery. Thus, the war-torn Somalia act as bait for Kenya to attract international community support in regional negotiations.

Therefore, from the above outset Kenya may be a benefactor to regional political instability not only in Somalia but within the East Africa region. These factors may also be pointed out to the collapse of the first and second East Africa community. But, time will tell when regional stability is established with well run political systems within the East Africa region.